Forecast Discussion
SYNOPSIS:
A very weak pressure gradient across the Northwest Caribbean is allowing for light winds and smooth seas to continue. A dry and stable atmosphere is also dominant over the Cayman area through the week, thus, the chance of showers is low.
Further afield, a stationary front lingers over the FL panhandle and is expected to push NW within the next 24 hours.
12Z Tropical wave: NIL
SATELLITE/RADAR INTERPRETATION FOR THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN:
Radar imagery shows a no showers around the Cayman area. Satellite imagery shows mainly patches of warm / low-level cloud.
Analysis Through 72Hrs:
As the cold front pushes NW-ward, the associated high-pressure cell strengthens and the ridge gradually pushes into the NW Caribbean. Low-level winds gradually increase but remains light and seas gradually becomes slight. Stable conditions would persist with mainly boundary layer moisture available. A mid-level trough would continue through Day 2 with a mid-level ridge approaching from the west and becoming dominant to Day 3. The upper-levels do not seem to add any enhancements. Thus, there is the low chance of precipitation over this period.
Days 4 - 5 Analysis:
As high-pressure system establishes over the eastern US and the building ridge causes the pressure gradient to tighten over the NW Caribbean. Thus, moderate to fresh winds are expected as well as moderate to rough seas are expected.
A ridge is present in the mid-levels and upper-levels are not favourable for deep convection. Residual moisture from an old shearline will drift over the NW Caribbean during this time. Low-level convergence may allow for mild instability and, with the intrusion of this moisture, some isolated showers can occur. Accumulation may be up to about 2 mm.
Forecaster
Wellington